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2020~2021年欧洲经济:复苏之路崎岖

文章摘要

2020年新冠肺炎疫情的暴发,改变了欧洲近两年经济持续弱增长的局面。受疫情冲击,欧盟成员国全部陷入经济衰退,失业率快速攀升,贸易表现大幅下滑。为扶持民生经济、稳定金融市场,欧洲央行迅速采取了一系列释放流动性的措施,欧盟和各国政府也纷纷出台纾困政策,使欧洲经济在疫情缓解后得到部分恢复。然而,由于疫情仍存在较大不确定性,全球贸易经济环境亦充满变数,未来欧洲经济复苏之路注定崎岖。预计随着欧盟复苏计划的推进,在没有出现英国无协议脱欧、主权债务危机等重大风险事件的前提下,欧洲经济或于2021年春季后回暖。

Abstract

The coronavirus outbreak in 2020 has changed the economic outlook for Europe and interrupted its weak recovery. All members of the EU have been plunged into recession by the pandemic,and their unemployment rates were rapidly on the rise. The inflation and trade performance were also sluggish. In order to counteract the economic shocks and stabilize the financial markets,the European central bank has put in place a variety of measures to inject the liquidity while EU and its member states splashed out billions of euros on stimulus plans. With the support of these policy responses,European countries have poised for an economic revival over the summer,as the pandemic temporarily receded. However,the outlook is highly uncertain and downside risks are predominant,including the possibility of a more protracted pandemic,financial upheaval,and retreat from global trade and supply linkages. Under the baseline forecast — which assumes no occurrence of major risk events such as no-deal Brexit or sovereign debt crisis — the European economy may rebound after the spring of 2021 as the EU recovery plan proceeds.

作者简介
陆婷:陆婷,经济学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员,主要研究领域为国际金融。
东艳:东艳,经济学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,主要研究领域为国际贸易。