突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情冲击了经济内生演变的趋势，突破了美国经济原有的减速趋势，造成前所未有的衰退。几乎各项宏观和微观经济指标都突破了原有的路径，呈现峭壁式或断崖式的陡然变化。虽然有些指标可能随着冲击的减弱会快速出现复原，但是一些应对政策可能会造成结构性影响，给经济基本面带来长期的负面影响。货币政策的变化意味着美联储的职能和目标可能出现了转变，将对金融体系产生深远的影响，而财政政策的力度会影响到经济复苏的速度，其债务后果更会在未来造成持久的影响。预计2020年美国经济负增长3%左右，2021年可能反弹到4%左右的正增长。
The sudden outbreak of COVID-19 prevailed over the endogenous slowdown trend of economic growth and caused tremendous economic hardship across the United States. Almost all economic indicators have fallen off a cliff from their original paths. Some indicators may resume shortly after the external shock while some response policies may result in economic structure changes and some indicators may present sluggishness that suggesting long lasting negative impacts of the epidemic on economic fundamentals. The new monetary policy suggests possible changes of its target and FED’s functions，imposing long run effects on financial system. In the meantime，fiscal policy dynamics will not only determine the speed of recovery，but also result in long term consequences of public debt. It is estimated that the US economic growth will be negative 3% in 2020，and rebound to positive 4% in 2021.
