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2019~2020年加拿大发展形势

文章摘要

2019~2020年,加拿大经济增长放缓,新冠疫情对国家整体经济发展的负面影响有待观察;通货膨胀面临较高不确定性,就业波动较大,贸易赤字缩小处于较低水平;国家财政赤字和联邦债务略微下降,但新冠疫情会明显恶化未来国家财政状况。贾斯廷·特鲁多带领自由党以少数优势赢得大选,新冠疫情让其获得新机遇;新冠疫情对国家安全造成重大挑战,政府开展紧急援助行动;国内犯罪增多,安全形势持续变差,新网络安全行动计划正式提上日程。加美之间仍旧龃龉不断,中加关系僵局没有根本改变;国内政治与环境外交目标难以协调,联合国安理会非常任理事国席位竞选失败;国家竞争力和国际声誉度上升,国家软实力排名持续下降。

Abstract

In 2019-2020,Canada’s macro economic growth has become slowly and the negative impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the country’s overall economic development remains to be seen. The inflation has faced with a high uncertainty,employment has fluctuated,and the trade deficit has shrunk to the low level. Meanwhile,the national fiscal deficit and federal debt have reduced slightly,but COVID-19 would significantly worsen future national finances. Trudeau Jr. won the prime minister’s election without enough votes to form a majority government,and COVID-19 has gave him new opportunities. As COVID-19 poses a major national security challenge,the government has launched emergency assistance operations. Besides,the domestic crime situation has continued to deteriorate,and the new cybersecurity action plan has been officially put on the agenda. Relations between Canada and the United States are still nasty,and the impasse in China-Canada relations has not fundamentally changed. It is difficult for Canada to coordinate domestic politics and environmental diplomacy. Canada has failed in the race for one of the rotating seats on the UN Security Council. Its national competitiveness and international reputation has risen,but the country’s soft power ranking has continued to decline.

作者简介
黄忠:黄忠,博士,广东外语外贸大学加拿大研究中心讲师,研究方向:加拿大外交。