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2019年拉美乱局的经济视角分析:结构困境与政策空间

文章摘要

2019年,拉丁美洲和加勒比地区多个国家出现乱局,大规模社会抗议不断。经济增长多年未见起色、失业率高企、贫困率升高、汇率大幅波动是拉美乱局的经济导火索。在世界经济面临长期停滞、拉美经济发展外部动力源不足的情况下,拉美国家内部的结构性问题集中爆发,集中表现为资本积累不足与生产效率低下。这再一次将寻求合适的发展模式并提高发展能力摆到了各国政府面前。新冠疫情席卷全球,拉美再遭重创。由于财政政策和货币政策效果不彰且空间有限,拉美国家必须实行结构性改革,调整经济结构、转变发展模式,提高抵御外部环境周期性变动的能力。

Abstract

The world is undergoing changes unseen in a century and many Latin American and the Caribbean countries in 2019 experienced chaos,as well as the concessive social protests. Years of stagnant economic growth,high unemployment,rising poverty and volatile exchange rates are the economic triggers for the region’s turmoil. While the world economy is facing a prolonged period of stagnation and the economic development of Latin American and the Caribbean countries lacks external sources of growth,structural problems are erupting,mainly manifested in insufficient capital accumulation and low productivity. Once again,it is up to governments to find the right development model and build capacity. As COVID-19 spreading across the world,Latin America and the Caribbean could not be immune and has been hit severely. As fiscal and monetary policies are ineffective and the space is limited,Latin American and the Caribbean countries must implement structural reforms to restructure their economies,change their development models and improve their ability to withstand the cyclical changes in the external environment.

作者简介
王飞:王飞,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所经济研究室助理研究员,主要研究方向为拉美经济。