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2019~2020年拉美对外关系:地区团结弱化、自主外交承压

文章摘要

2019年,经济、政治和社会领域的变动将重塑拉美对外关系格局,本地区需要同时应对外部体系性调整所带来的多重影响和内部变动所产生的多重挑战。拉美地区尤其是南美地区的地缘政治格局正在发生逆转;地区大国对外政策出现重大调整,地区意识形态呈现多样性甚至两极化,加剧了左翼和右翼政府间的对立,对地区团结造成冲击,导致地缘政治风险上升、地区合作议程出现新的分化组合。美国对拉美事务的介入持续加大,在“美国优先”战略下频繁在移民、贸易问题上向拉美国家施压,加紧拉拢右翼政府、打压左翼政府,加大对域外大国的排斥力度,拉美国家一直寻求的自主外交面临更多压力。在跨地区合作中,经贸仍是重要关切。中拉关系在变局中企稳,并呈现发展新趋势,中拉贸易出现新的国别差异性特征,经贸合作多样性凸显,合作的机制化进一步提升。2020年,新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情、部分国家政局走势以及美国大选等因素对拉美地区国际关系的影响值得关注。

Abstract

Changes in the economic,political,and social fields will reshape Latin American Foreign Relations,the region needs to cope with multiple impacts brought by external systemic adjustment and multiple challenges brought by internal changes at the same time. The geopolitical pattern in Latin America,especially in South America,is being reversed,major adjustments have been made to the foreign policies of regional powers,the regional ideology is diverse and even polarized,which intensifies the confrontation between the left and right governments,and has an impact on regional solidarity,leading to increased geopolitical risks and a new differentiated combination of regional cooperation agendas. The United States has continued to increase its involvement in Latin American affairs,it has frequently pressed immigration and trade issues under the “U.S. Priority” strategy,and has stepped up the efforts of the right-wing government to suppress the left-wing government and stepped up its rejection of major powers outside the region. Latin American countries are facing more pressure on autonomous diplomacy. With the promotion of cross regional cooperation,economy and trade remain important concerns. China-Latin America relations have stabilized in a changing situation and are showing a new trend of development,the new country-specific differences emerge in China-Latin America trade,diversity and institutionalization of economic and trade cooperation have been further improved. In 2020,we need to pay attention to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,the political situation of some countries,and the US general election on the international relations in Latin America.

作者简介
谌园庭:谌园庭,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所副研究员、国际关系研究室主任,墨西哥研究中心秘书长。