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2019~2020年拉美社会形势:发展受阻,抗议频仍

文章摘要

2019年,在经济低迷的大背景下,拉美地区社会形势呈现出三个特征。一是各项社会指标进一步恶化,社会发展面临倒退风险。贫困人口增加是拉美国家面临的重大挑战之一。减贫能否持续在部分国家存在较强的不确定性。就业形势依旧难有起色。失业、就业不足和非正规就业等问题均有所加剧。在财政压力加大的情况下,大多数国家存在社会开支不足的情况。二是社会矛盾出现激化趋势,多国爆发社会抗议。造成近年来拉美社会不稳定和社会矛盾突出的原因是多方面的,包括经济发展停滞、社会阶层结构的变迁、政府治理能力的欠缺和对民生诉求的懈怠。三是移民问题愈演愈烈,成为地区性议题。无论是中美洲3国,还是委内瑞拉,国内因素都是造成大规模移民潮最重要的原因。中美洲移民面临的最大问题在于美国移民政策的收紧。而委内瑞拉的向外移民潮使周边国家原本存在的公共设施不足、医疗和教育资源短缺、就业困难、住房紧张、治安恶化等问题更加突出,各国均出现了不同程度的排外倾向。

Abstract

In 2019,under the background of economic downturn,the social situation in Latin America showed three characteristics. First,social indicators further deteriorated,and social development faced the risk of retrogression. Increasing poverty is one of the major challenges that Latin American countries are facing. There is a strong uncertainty about the sustainability of poverty reduction in some countries. The employment was still difficult to be improved. Unemployment,underemployment and informal employment increased. In the case of increasing financial pressure,most of Latin American countries had insufficient social spending. Second,social conflicts intensified and social protests broke out in many countries. There are many reasons for social instability and prominent social contradictions in Latin America,such as the stagnation of economic development,the change of social stratum structure,the lack of governance capacity and the untimely response to people’s livelihood demands. Third,the problem of migration is getting more and more serious and has become a regional issue. No matter the Northern Triangle region of Central America or Venezuela,domestic factors are the most important reasons for large-scale migration. The biggest obstacle facing Central American immigrants is the tightening of US immigration policy. However,the influx of Venezuelan immigrants makes the existing problems in the surrounding countries,such as the insufficient of public facilities,the shortage of medical and educational resources,the difficulty of employment,the shortage of housing,and the deterioration of public security,even more prominent. Many countries have shown the rise of xenophobia.

作者简介
林华:林华,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所社会文化研究室副研究员,阿根廷研究中心秘书长,主要研究拉美社会问题和阿根廷。