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2019~2020年拉美经济形势:经济停滞,改革不足

文章摘要

2019年,受世界经济增长放缓、全球贸易紧张局势反复以及地区内部政局不稳与社会抗议交织的叠加影响,拉美地区经济增长几乎停滞。尽管地区通胀保持在低位、“双赤字”趋势有所缓解,但是公共债务高企、货币波动加剧以及社会风险的积累增加了经济的不确定性。从次区域来看,中美洲的增长情况好于加勒比地区和南美洲。各国经济因受外部影响机制不同以及国内应对能力相异而存在差异。受主要发达国家重启宽松货币政策影响,拉美仍有刺激总需求的政策激励。2020年全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对拉美地区造成严重冲击,预计拉美经济将大幅衰退。展望后疫情时代,拉美地区将面临国内生产、对外贸易及区域一体化的新变局,而深入推进结构性改革是应对诸多挑战的根本保证。

Abstract

In 2019,under the influence of slowdown of world economic growth,repeated global trade tensions and the combination of regional political instability and social protests,Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) economic growth has almost stagnated. Although regional inflation remained in low level and extent of double deficits had eased,some risks such as high public debt,increased currency volatility and social conflicts had increased economic uncertainty. For the subregion,growth in Central America was better than in the Caribbean and South America. And the growth rate varied across the countries in the region due to different external impact mechanisms and domestic reaction capacities. Influenced by relaunching of loose monetary policy in major developed countries,LAC countries still have had policy incentives to stimulate aggregate demand. The sudden outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has caused serious impact on Latin America,and the economy in the region is expected to decline sharply. Looking forward to the post-COVID-19 era,Latin America will face new changes in domestic production,foreign trade and regional integration,and further promoting structural reform is the fundamental guarantee to meet these challenges.

作者简介
张勇:张勇,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所经济研究室副主任、副研究员,主要研究领域为拉美经济、发展模式转型、中拉经贸关系。