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2019~2020年拉美形势与前景:再陷“失去的十年”?

文章摘要

2019年,拉美地区经济增长持续放缓,贫困率有所反弹,多国爆发大规模社会运动。联合国拉美经委会预估2014~2020年将是拉美地区近40年来增长最慢的时期。针对拉美2019年的综合形势、面临的困难和潜在风险,本文在全球和历史比较的视角下进行解读,并尝试分析地区新近政策的有效性,从而对地区近期走势做出判断。本文认为,2019年拉美的政治、经济和社会形势与全球发生“共振”,经济“超调”,下滑态势加速,导致其边缘化风险加大,也使地区社会动荡风险呈现持续上升趋势。拉美的形势变化具有深层的结构性原因,经过21世纪初期的发展,拉美在经济上的对外依附性加强,政治脆弱性加大,而社会需求难以得到满足加大了其结构性挑战。针对当前困境,拉美各国除了适应民意进行“修宪”等改革外,着重调整了经济与社会政策,并在2019年推出多项改革措施。但是,拉美改革措施受到财政与货币政策空间的约束,短期效用有限。在2020年全球“黑天鹅”事件频发的背景下,拉美的改革面临多重内外部限制,其经济增长前景不乐观,而政治和社会形势仍面临不确定性。

Abstract

In 2019,economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) continued to slow down,which is accompanied by the rebounded poverty rate and the spread social movements. UNECLAC estimates that the period between 2014 and 2020 will be the slowest growth period in the region in the past 40 years. Aiming at the comprehensive situation,difficulties and potential risks faced by LAC in 2019,this report interprets it from a global and historical perspective. It attempts to analyze the effectiveness of recent regional policies to make judgments on regional tendencies. According to the report,LAC’s “resonated” with the global political,economic,and social situation in 2019. However,its economic “overshoot” relative to other parts of the world. Thus the decline has accelerated,which has increased its marginalization dilemma and the regional social turbulence. LAC’s situation has deep structural causes. After the development of this century,its economic dependence on the outside world has increased,and its political vulnerability has increased. Its structural challenges have been increased. In response to the current predicament,LAC countries have adjusted their economic and social policies,and launched a number of reform measures in 2019. However,LAC’s reforms are constrained by fiscal and monetary policy space,and their short-term effectiveness is limited. In the context of the frequent occurrence of “black swans” around the world in 2020,LAC’s reforms face multiple internal and external constraints. Its annual economic growth continues to be optimistic. The uncertainty of the political and social situation will continue.

作者简介
岳云霞:岳云霞,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所经济研究室研究员、经济研究室主任,主要研究领域为拉美经济、国际贸易与投资。