能源消费回弹效应的存在，表明技术进步并不能完全实现理论预期的节能效果，理论能源节约量会被能源消费回弹效应抵消。本报告通过对回弹效应定义的梳理，构建了回弹效应测算模型，对河南省能源消费回弹效应进行了测算。结果表明，改革开放以来，河南省技术进步促进的实际节能量只占理论节能量的85%，其余15%节能量则被能源消费回弹量抵消。2009年之前，河南省回弹效应水平呈上升趋势，2009年之后呈下降趋势，但与其他省份比较，河南省回弹效应仍比较大。未来，河南能源政策制定应充分考虑能源回弹效应的影响，确保能效提高产生的节能效果最大限度地实现。
The rebound effect of energy consumption indicates that developing technology has not achieved the expected goal of energy saving. The amounts of theoretical expected energy saving will be offset largely by the rebound effect to some extent. In this paper，beginning with the definition of rebound effect，we construct a rebound effect calculation model to calculate the rebound effect of Henan Province. Our estimation results show that the actual energy saving amounts caused by technological progress only account for 85% of the theoretical energy saving in Henan Province，which 15% of the energy saving is offset by the rebound effect. And there is upward trend before 2009 and downward trend after 2009 of the rebound effect of Henan Province. Compared with other provinces in China，the average rebound effect of Henan Province is relatively large. In the future，rebound effect should be taken full account of to make energy policy effectively，in order to maximize the energy saving amounts caused by energy efficiency increasing.
