电力需求与经济发展紧密相关,在经济社会的不同发展阶段,电力与经济表现出不同的关系特征。本文以影响电力—经济关系的主要因素,如度电产值、产业结构、气候等为切入点,从总量相关性、增速相关性、结构相关性及度电产值等方面,对河南全省及分区域的长、短期电力经济关系进行了全面的分析,并结合电力经济关系的变化及评估,基于不同的经济社会发展预期情景,对河南省“十三五”电力需求进行了预测。
The electricity demand is closely related to the economic development. At different stages of economic and social development,the relationships between the electric power and the economy change accordingly. Taking the main factors affecting the power-economy relationship (such as industrial structure,energy intensity,policy,climate,etc.)as the starting point,this paper comprehensively analyzed the long and short-term power and economic relations of the whole province and sub region from the total amount correlation,growth relevance,structural relevance and energy intensity,etc. Finally this paper evaluated and predicted the electricity demand situation of the “13th Five-Year” period in Henan Province according to the evolution of power economic relations and different economic development scenes.