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族群政治视野下的肯尼亚政治发展

文章摘要

以民族为参政基本单元的族群政治是肯尼亚现代政治发展的突出特点。自2007年大选骚乱后,肯尼亚政治发展一直聚焦于通过制度建设遏制族群政治的膨胀和蔓延。2013年、2017年两届大选的总体平稳以及乌胡鲁·肯雅塔总统的顺利连任表明,通过2010年颁布的新宪法推进全面政改,肯尼亚目前暂时维持了定期选举与族群政治之间的平衡。然而,随着肯尼亚经济社会的发展,族群政治也在当前的制度框架下演变出愈加复杂和多样化的表现形式。特别是在2022年大选压力的催化作用下,族群政治会不会销蚀乃至扰乱政改后的发展格局,将成为洞悉肯尼亚在可预见时期内政治发展走向的重要着眼点。

Abstract

Ethnic politics which empower each domestic individual ethnic group as the atom of political engagement is a prominent feature of Kenya’s modern political history. Since the election riot of 2007,Kenyan politics have been striking with a institutional building aiming at neutralizing the expansion and spread of ethnic politics. The overall stability of the two general elections in 2013 and 2017 as well as the successful re-election of President Uhuru Kenyatta illustrated that a balance between periodic elections and ethnic rivalries has been achieved within the framework of the 2010 New Constitution. However,manifestations of ethnic politics are now becoming increasingly complex and diversified alongside the current social and economic development of Kenya. Especially motivated by the approaching general election of 2022,whether relations between various Kenyan ethnic groups would disrupt or even compromise the political tranquility brought about by the New Constitution will provide an significant watch point for Kenyan politics in the foreseeable future.

作者简介
邓延庭:邓延庭,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所、中国非洲研究院助理研究员,安全研究室副主任,主要研究领域为东非政治、安全,中国与东非国家合作等。