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热词推荐: 能源基础设施

2020年非洲经济形势和中非经贸合作走势研判

文章摘要

2014年以来,非洲经济逐渐陷入“低增长、高债务”的困境,其背后则是长期以来形成的单一经济结构和严重依赖外贸外资的外向型经济模式及其固有的脆弱性。尽管非洲国家在推动经济多样化及工业化发展方面取得了一些进展,但大多数国家还没有找到长期可持续增长的最佳路径。2020年新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的暴发对非洲经济产生了严重冲击,可能使非洲经济中潜藏的“痼疾”和“内伤”集中发作,从而加剧之前的经济困境并引发危机。疫情通过多种渠道对非洲经济产生剧烈而深远的影响,给非洲经济未来几年的增长都造成较大压力。疫情在短期内也给中国企业开展对非经贸合作带来较大困难,但疫情不会改变中非经济长期互补的基本面和中非深化互利合作的大趋势。在中国经济率先复苏的背景下,中国与非洲可以在能源矿产、医疗卫生、制造业、农业和数字经济等领域加强合作,化危为机推动中非经贸合作高质量发展。

Abstract

Since 2014,the African economy has been suffering the condition of “low growth and high debt”,which reflects the vulnerabilities caused by its long-standing single-product economy and its growth pattern relying heavily on international trade and external funds. Although many African countries have made some inroads into promoting economic diversification and industrialization,most countries have not found the path leading to sustainable growth. The COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 has severely impacted African economy. In particular,the pandemic may expose and aggravate the existing problems inherent in the economy,exacerbate the economic difficulties,and even give rise to a crisis sweeping across the African continent. The pandemic has been impacting African economy through various channels and will further depress the continent’s growth over the next few years. The pandemic will also bring about difficulties to Sino-African economic and trade cooperation in the short term,but it hardly change anything fundamental-neither the complementarity between the two,nor the trend of deepening mutually beneficial cooperation. China,whose economy has picked up a quick restoration,may take the lead to deepen economic cooperation with Africa,especially in sectors such as energy and mineral resources,medical and health care,manufacturing,agriculture and the digital economy,in a way to materialize the high-quality development of the Sino-African economic and trade cooperation.

作者简介
郝睿:郝睿,中非发展基金研究发展部总经理,主要研究领域为经济发展、非洲经济、中非合作等。
黄云卿:黄云卿,中非发展基金研究发展部经理助理。