自2014年习近平总书记提出关于国家能源安全发展的“四个革命、一个合作”战略思想以来,我国不断推进能源生产与消费转型,取得显著进展。然而,我国能源转型之路仍是复杂、长期和艰辛的,能源改革面临多重挑战与困难。在这种背景下,有必要构建能源转型评价体系以对各地区进行年度评价,帮助各级政府深化对能源供给和消费结构、能源转型路径、能源政策、能源投入和节能环保等方面的认识,从而推动我国能源事业发展。本报告首先梳理了多种评价方法并选择AHP方法来构建模型。其次从经济发展、能源现状和能源转型趋势三个角度分析了城市发展与能源消费转型机制,构建了区域发展和能源消费转型评价体系,最后给出了2017年我国地级市、省级、城市群、大区4个层级的行政区域发展与能源消费转型指数。从结果来看,该评价体系能够精准地定位能源消费转型有所欠缺的地区,并从资源投入、区域禀赋、能源结构等角度挖掘成因。
China has madea great progress in promoting the transformation energy production and consumption since President Xi put forward the strategic thought on the development of national energy security in 2014. However,China’s energy transformation is still a complex and long-term mission,and will face multiple challenges and difficulties. In this context,it is necessary to build an annually regional energy transformation evaluation system,which could help governments deepen their understanding of energy supply-consumption structure,energy transformation path,energy policy,energy investment,energy conservation and environment protection etc.,so as to enhance the development of energy industry in China. Firstly,this paper compares several kinds of evaluation methods and selects AHP method to build the model. Then it constructs the indicator system of regional development and energy consumption transformation from three aspects of economic development,energy status and energy transformation trend. Finally,the paper gives the 2017 index of development and energy consumption transformation in four levels with AHP model. From the results,the evaluation system can accurately locate the areas lacking in energy consumption transformation,and explore the causes from the perspective of resource investment,regions’ resource endowment,energy structure,etc.