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世界石油市场回顾与展望

文章摘要

2019年,全球经济增速放缓和中美贸易摩擦导致全球石油需求下降,增加了石油价格的下行压力,而欧佩克+联盟减产协议对支撑油价起到了关键作用,全球石油供给量与上年基本持平。中东地区频繁的突发事件、美国对伊朗和委内瑞拉的制裁引发了市场对原油供应安全的担忧,加剧了国际原油市场价格波动,但由于石油市场仍延续供给过剩态势,地缘政治风险对油价趋势的影响减弱,油价波动幅度相对于上年有所收窄。国际原油价格在2019年走出了先涨后跌的行情,布伦特原油中枢价格为64美元/桶,较上年下跌9.9%。2020年,新冠肺炎疫情先后在中国和欧美迅速流行,并蔓延至全球,将导致全球经济陷入深度衰退,世界原油需求大幅下跌。沙特和俄罗斯的价格战加剧了国际石油市场供给过剩局面,导致国际油价暴跌,布伦特原油价格跌至15.3美元/桶的低位,WTI价格一度跌入负值区域。预计2020年下半年,世界经济和原油需求将得到部分修复,全球原油日需求量在2020年下降1000万桶,2021年,日需求量将反弹800万桶,布伦特原油中枢价格在2020年将在40美元/桶左右震荡,2021年将可能反弹至50美元/桶左右。

Abstract

In 2019,the slowing global economic growth and Sino-U.S.Trade frictions have led to a decline in global oil demand and increased downward pressure on oil prices,the OPEC+Alliance production cut agreement has played a key role in supporting oil prices,and the global oil production is nearly same as that of previous year. Frequent emergencies in the Middle East,and U.S.sanctions on Iran and Venezuela have raised concerns about the safety of crude oil supply and exacerbated fluctuations in the international oil prices. However,as the oil market continues to oversupply,the impact of geopolitics risk on the oil prices has weakened,and the fluctuation range of oil prices has narrowed compared to the previous year. International oil prices have risen first and then declined in 2019,and the price of Brent crude petroleum is $64/barrel,down 9.9% from the previous year. In 2020,the epidemic of the coronavirus in China,Europe and the United States,and even in the whole world,will cause the global economy to fall into a deep recession and the world’s crude oil demand fall sharply. The price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia has exacerbated the oversupply situation in the international oil market,causing international oil prices to plummet. Brent crude oil prices have fallen to the low level of $27.0/barrel. It is expected that the epidemic situation of the coronavirus will be suppressed in the second half of 2020,and the world economy and crude oil demand will be partially rebounded. It is also expected that daily global demand for crude petroleum may fall by 3 million barrels in the first half of 2020,then remain the same as that of the previous year in the second half of 2020,decrease by 1.5 million barrels in the whole year of 2020,and increase by 100 Million barrels in 2021. The price of Brent crude oil will fluctuate around $40/barrel in 2020,and it may rebound to around $55/barrel in 2021.

作者简介
王永中:王永中,经济学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,研究方向为货币经济、国际投资和能源经济。
周伊敏:周伊敏,经济学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,研究方向为能源经济、资产定价。