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2019~2020年菲美关系:双边关系低位运行,发展前景晦暗不明

文章摘要

2019~2020年度,菲美关系发展不断受到冲击,甚至下探同盟关系底线。特朗普政府坚持“美国优先”,对菲美同盟关系重视度降低,而赢得中期选举胜利的杜特尔特政府进一步稳定了国内政治版图,其“亲中俄、远美国”的外交政策得到延续发展,导致菲美双边政治关系总体稳步在低位运行。菲单方面提出废止《访问部队协议》,让逐步回暖的菲美双边军事合作关系遽然受挫。但美在菲殖民历史、紧密的经贸联系及美对菲援助关系以及菲民众普遍亲美的心理等因素,共同构建了菲美同盟关系的坚实基础,加之美方近年来在菲开展的各种民间互动,也巩固了菲亲美的民心民意。美国即将迎来总统选举,菲杜特尔特政府也在苦战新冠疫情,这些都为菲美两国关系发展变化带来变数。

Abstract

In 2019-2020,the relations between Philippines and U.S. has been constantly impacted,and even the alliance has been shocked. The Trump administration insists on “America First” and pay less attention to the Philippines-U.S. alliance. The Duterte government that won the midterm elections stabilized the domestic political bloc and instead of having a closer connection with The U.S.,Philippines chose to improve its relationship with China and Russia,which has resulted in the Philippines-U.S. bilateral political relations operating at a low level. The Philippines unilaterally proposed the abolition of the 《Visiting Forces Agreement》(VFA),which leads to a sudden setback in the gradual recovery of the Philippines-U.S. bilateral military cooperations. However,factors such as the colonial history of the United States in the Philippines,close economic and aid relations,and the general public’s psychology of pro-U.S. And other factors have built a solid foundation for the Philippines-U.S. alliance,and the various public interactions that the U.S. has conducted in the Philippines in recent years have also consolidated Philippine’s public will towards the United States. The U.S. president election and the Duterte government’s action in fighting the COVID-19,and these will bring more variables to the Philippines-U.S. relations.

作者简介
冯雷:冯雷,中山大学“一带一路”研究院研究员。
王晓燕:王晓燕,中山大学国际关系学院研究助理。