合肥市作为安徽省省会，将自身目标设定为建成区域性特大城市。根据《合肥市城市总体规划（2011-2020年）》，到2020年，合肥市总人口达到960万人，人均城市建设用地100平方米。本文使用文献研究法和定量研究法，建立综合人口承载力模型，通过对合肥市就业、住宅、道路、排水等因素的分析，分别得出各因素2017～2025年的人口承载量，即到2025年就业承载量为542.71万人，住宅承载量为1630.50万人，道路面积承载量为929.08万人，供水承载量为864.47万人，用地承载量为960.71万人，绿地承载量为729.45万人，排水承载量为2083.53万人。并采用各因素短板和赋予权重两种方法进行分析，最终得出合肥市综合人口承载量为1033.22万人。最后结合合肥市目前面临的问题，如市区道路拥挤、排水系统不畅、公共危机预防能力低等，对合肥市人口承载量进行对比，提出如下建议：构建立体交通网、促进经济发展、合理布局排水系统、增加基础设施面积。
As the provincial capital，Hefei sets itself the goal of building a regional mega-city. According to the General Urban Planning for Hefei 2011-2020，the total population of Hefei will reach 9.6 million by 2020，and per capita land for urban construction will reach 100 square meters. This report adopts literature review and quantitative research methods to establish models for overall population capacity，and calculates population capacities for different factors between 2016 and 2025 by analyzing factors such as employment，housing，roads and sewage，namely，5.4271 million for employment capacity，16.3050 million for housing capacity，9.2908 million for road capacity，8.6447 million for water supply capacity，9.6071 million for land capacity，7.2945 million for green space capacity，and 20.8353 million for sewage capacity. Through analysis by factor shortcomings and calculation weight，the overall population capacity for Hefei is calculated to be 10.3322 million. Finally，to address pressing issues in Hefei such as downtown road congestion，inadequate sewage system，and poor capacity for public crisis prevention，suggestions are made by comparing population capacity of Hefei，which include the establishment of 3D transportation networks，promotion of economic development，rational design of sewage system，and increase of infrastructure area.
