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2019年巴黎的莫斯科转向:背景、过程与前景

文章摘要

巴黎的莫斯科转向,于马克龙开始执政之际进入试探期,于马克龙有望取得欧盟实际领导权之时迎来跃进期,中间经历了一个失望期。接近莫斯科,体现了法国政治精英的法兰西例外主义信条及其对法国国家利益、欧洲秩序和世界秩序的判读和构想,具有鲜明的平衡主义色彩,并引发“法国欧洲秩序”“美国欧洲秩序”“德国欧洲秩序”构想之间的支配权竞争。莫斯科转向具有内在的战略歧义性,可被解读为一种对俄“接触—遏制”战略,同时具有显著的平衡中国的战略态势。欧盟内部分化和欧美裂痕的加深,契合莫斯科的战略利益。但巴黎和莫斯科相拥的前景尚不明朗。

Abstract

Paris’ Pivot to Moscow began its probing phase as early as the inauguration of Macron’s presidency. A phase of disappointment followed. The interaction leapfrogged,however,when Macron was poised to gain the de facto leadership of the EU. The rapprochement with Moscow,informed by the internalized French exceptionalism tenet of the French political elite and its interpretation and conception of French national interest,the European order and the world order,has been markedly animated by a spirit of balancing and has resulted in the conception trio of the “French European Order”,“American European Order” and “German European Order” contending for primacy. This neo-oriental turn,imbued with strategic ambiguity,can arguably be perceived as a “containment through engagement” approach vis-à-vis Russia. Also,it denotes an unmitigated strategic “China-balancing” posture. The aggravation of EU’s internal division and EU-US estrangement dovetails with the strategic interest of Moscow. Nevertheless,the outlook of the Paris-Moscow embrace remains clouded.

作者简介
戴冬梅:戴冬梅,北京外国语大学法语语言文化学院教授,研究领域为法国对外政策、中国法语教学。
陆建平:陆建平,法律硕士,法律翻译工作者。