本报告从中国经济新常态和能源转型出发，根据发展趋势的分析，利用数技经所开发的中国能源模型系统（CEMS）对中国2020～2050年的能源需求与供给、贸易走势进行了预测和政策效果模拟，认为中国经济正处于产业转型升级与能源转型过程之中，需要对目前的能源体系进行系统化的改善，在实现向清洁能源转型的同时做到维持能源成本稳定，并确保能源安全。主要建议包括：加快建立全国性天然气储运调峰网络；发挥电力市场功能，推动电力产能结构调整；加快煤炭资源省份产业升级，发展能化共轨产业技术经济体系；加强工业节能与建筑节能。
This report makes projections of Chinese energy demand，supply and trade in the context of economic new normal and energy transition，with the China Energy Model System developed by the authors. The projection shows that Chinese economy is in the process of industrial and energy transition，needing more improvement of current energy system in the context of stable energy cost and security. The policy recommendations include：to establish a nation-wide natural gas network of storage and mitigation，to push the structural adjustment of power generation capacity with market function，to promote upgrading of coal industry with the establishment of poly-generation tech-economic system，and to enhance energy saving in industries and construction.
