本文首先对中国2019年经济走势进行回顾，运用经济增长理论及相关的实证分析对改革开放以来的经济增长来源进行要素分解，并以此为基础分析中国经济未来的增长潜力与发展趋势。综合各要素发展情况，未来15～20年中国经济仍将保持较快增长速度，到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化。
This paper reviews the economic situation of China in 2019 at first，and then analyzes the origins of economic growth through the growth theory as well as related empirical test. Based on the decomposing of the contribution of various factors，the paper analyzes and forecasts the potential of economic growth of China in mid-and-long-term，as well as the tendency. The conclusion is that China can still maintain a mid-and-high growth rate in the coming 15-20 years，and will fulfill the task of modernization by 2035.
