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2018~2019年东南亚的政经形势:回顾与展望

文章摘要

近年来,东南亚国家保持了政局相对稳定,2018年马来西亚和柬埔寨的大选,2019年泰国和印尼的大选、菲律宾的中期选举则是东南亚政坛的关注热点,新加坡内阁再次改组选定政府第四代领导层的领军人物。在世界经济增长放缓和深度调整的形势下,东南亚国家经济增长普遍放缓,但各国经济仍保持了弹性,多数国家经济保持了中速增长,在世界经济的地位快速提升。各国加快了宏观政策调整并积极推进产业结构转型,以应对近期国内经济增长的减缓和中长期“工业4.0”时代的挑战。2019年,是东盟跨入共同体时代的第四个年头,东盟加快了区域政治安全同盟构建、生产要素自由流动和社会文化资源整合,并取得了新的进展。

Abstract

In recent years,Southeast Asia has successfully safeguarded overall political stability. In 2018,general elections were held in Malaysia and Cambodia. In 2019,the general elections were held in Indonesia and Thailand,the mid-term election was held in Philippine attracted southeast Asia politics’ attention. Meanwhile,Heng Swee Keat may lead Singapore’s fourth-generation leadership after the cabinet reshuffle in 2019. In the context of the profound adjustment and weakness of the global economy,economic growth in Southeast Asia slows down but their economies have remained resilient,with most countries experiencing moderate economic growth,and their status in the world economy has been rapidly enhanced. Under the impact of the fourth industrial revolution,various policies and strategies of industrial 4.0 and economic transformation plans have been launched by Southeast Asian countries successively,all of which aim to deal with the reconstruction of the global value chain,promote economic transformation,avoid falling into the middle-income trap,reverse or delay the process of “deindustrialization” and reshape their international competitiveness. In 2019,the fourth year of the establishment of ASEAN Community,ASEAN have implemented the blueprints of the three pillars of ASEAN community by promoting the building of political-security alliance,the free flow of the production factors and the integration of social and cultural resources,worked on setting up a truly rules-based,people-oriented community,and made a great progress.

作者简介
王勤:王勤,厦门大学南洋研究院教授,博士生导师,经济学博士。