中美贸易摩擦对广东产业贸易产生了一定影响。根据中美贸易摩擦的当前情景，运用广东CGE-TERM数据库和模型，模拟了中美贸易摩擦对广东制造业和服务业贸易的影响。研究结果表明：一是中美贸易摩擦将对广东宏观经济产生深刻影响，制造业比较发达的城市受损更大；二是中美贸易摩擦将极大地改变广东贸易格局，制造业和农业进出口减少，服务业出口反而有所增加。基于结论，建议加强区域经济联系，发挥集群经济的辐射作用，积极培育内需市场，推动资源的优化配置与产业升级；充分发挥现有的制造业优势，同时结合新兴技术与产业发展趋势，大力发展智能制造及相关的高端制造业，全面提升区域经济的核心竞争力。
Based on the current situation of Sino-US trade friction，this report establishes a Guangdong CGE-TERM database and model，which is used to simulate the impact of the disputes on Guangdong manufacturing and service trade. The results show that：（1）Sino-US trade friction will have a profound impact on Guangdong’s macro economy，and cities with more developed manufacturing and processing industries will suffer greater damage；（2）Sino-U.S. trade friction will greatly change Guangdong’s trade pattern，and manufacturing industry and agricultural imports and exports have decreased，while services exports have increased. Based on the above research findings，the report proposes：（1）strengthening regional economic linkages，taking advantages of the radiation function of the cluster economy，actively cultivating the domestic demand，and achieving the optimal allocation of resources and industrial upgrading goals；（2）giving play to the existing manufacturing industries and combining emerging technologies and industrial development trends at the same time；and vigorously developing intelligent manufacturing and related high-end manufacturing to comprehensively enhance the core competitiveness of the regional economy.
