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2019年中美贸易摩擦对广东出口的影响程度分析——来自微观数据的检验

文章摘要

本报告将美国贸易代表办公室(USTR)公布的对中国出口产品加征关税的产品清单与广东产品的海关数据进行了匹配,发现前三轮关税会使广东出口下降0.22%~3.45%,第四轮关税会使广东出口下降0.09%~1.38%,第四轮关税相较于前三轮关税对广东加工贸易、外商独资企业的影响更大,另外不同产业、不同地市受到的影响也存在较大差异。报告最后从进一步深化改革开放、降低企业成本、推动市场多元化等方面给出了广东应对中美贸易摩擦的建议。

Abstract

This report matched the list of products subject to tariffs on China’s exports published by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) with data at the micro level. It was found that the first three rounds of tariffs would reduce Guangdong’s exports by 0.22%-3.45%. The fourth round of tariffs will reduce Guangdong’s exports by 0.09%-1.38%. Compared with the first three rounds of tariffs,the fourth round of tariffs will have a greater impact on Guangdong’s processing trade and the wholly foreign-owned enterprises. In addition,different industries and cities will be affected differently. Finally,the report gives Guangdong’s suggestions for coping with Sino-US trade frictions in terms of further deepening reform and opening up,reducing corporate costs,and promoting market diversification.

作者简介
张翊:张翊,博士,广东国际战略研究院研究人员,主要研究领域是国际贸易理论与政策。