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广东外经贸形势分析报告(2019~2020年)

文章摘要

2019年,受世界经济增速放缓、中美贸易摩擦持续、发达国家实施“再工业化”以及区域性地缘政治冲突等因素影响,广东进出口贸易规模略有缩减。以人民币计价,2019年广东进出口总规模为7.14万亿元,回落0.2%。其中,货物出口总额为4.34万亿元,比上年增长1.6%;货物进口总额为2.80万亿元,比上年下降2.9%。以美元计价,2019年广东外贸总额、出口总额和进口总额增速分别为-4.5%、-2.7%和-7.1%。广东对外贸易结构继续优化升级,一般贸易保持主导地位,高新技术产品等高附加值产品出口份额持续上升,民营企业在全省进出口总额中的占比首次突破五成,贸易对象受国际形势变化影响有所调整,各区域的贸易份额趋于协调。2020年初,国内和国际的经济环境发生了巨大变化,广东外经贸面临巨大挑战和不确定性。本报告认为,2020年广东的货物贸易继续承担下行的压力,货物进出口总额会下降5%~10%;用人民币计值的下降幅度更大,进口总额的下降幅度更大,第一季度下降幅度最大、第三和第四季度会有较大幅增长。

Abstract

In 2019,due to the slowdown of world economic growth,the continuation of Sino-US trade conflict,the implementation of “Reindustrialization” in developed countries and regional geopolitical conflicts,the scale of import and export trade in Guangdong Province decreased slightly. Denominated in RMB,the total scale of Guangdong’s import and export in 2019 was 7.14 trillion yuan,about 20 billion yuan less than that in 2018,a decrease of 0.2% over the previous year. Among them,the total export of goods was 4.34 trillion yuan,an increase of 1.6% over the previous year;the total import of goods was 2.80 trillion yuan,a decrease of 2.9% over the previous year. Denominated in US dollars,the total import and export volume of Guangdong Province in 2019 was 1035.9 billion USD,down 4.5% from the previous year. Among them,the export volume was 628.942 billion USD,and the import volume was 406.958 billion USD,2.7% and 7.1% lower than that in 2018,respectively. Guangdong’s foreign trade structure continued to be optimized and upgraded,general trade remained dominant,the export share of high-tech products and other high-value-added products continued to rise,the proportion of private enterprises in the province’s total import and export exceeded 50% for the first time,the trading objects were adjusted under the influence of changes in the international situation,and the trade share of each region tended to be equal. In early 2020,there are new changes in domestic and international economic environment. The situation of Guangdong’s foreign trade and economic cooperation is facing great challenges and uncertainties. According to this report,Guangdong’s trade in goods will continue to bear downward pressure in 2020,and the import and export of goods will decrease by 5%-10%;the growth rate in RMB will be more,and the decline rate of import will be larger,with the largest decline in the first quarter and a larger growth in the third and fourth quarters.

作者简介
肖鹞飞:肖鹞飞,广东外语外贸大学金融学院教授,主要研究领域是国际金融、国际贸易、世界经济。
吴丽诗:吴丽诗,广东外语外贸大学金融学院硕士研究生。