中国、日本、欧盟三方互为重要的贸易伙伴，日欧EPA生效将给中国经济、日本经济以及双边贸易带来何种影响，成为本报告关注的焦点。一方面，通过计算出口相似度指数发现，中欧在日本市场以及中日在欧盟市场的出口相似性并不高，但某些品类商品的出口竞争性呈逐年提高之势。另一方面，运用GTAP模型，模拟分析日欧关税减让对中日经济影响的结果显示：日欧EPA生效将使中国宏观经济（如GDP、社会福利以及贸易条件）受到负面冲击，而使日本宏观经济改善；在农产品、农产品加工业方面，中日产出均将下降；中国对世界的进出口贸易额下降，日本对世界的进出口贸易额上升，而在双边贸易中，中国对日农产品、农产品加工业出口及中国自日工业品进口规模均出现一定程度下降，日欧间贸易转移效应对中国影响较为显著。
China，Japan and the EU are important trading partners of each other. The impact of the Japan-Europe EPA on China’s economy，Japan’s economy and bilateral trade has become the focus of this paper. On the one hand，by calculating the export similarity index，we find that the export similarity between China and EU in the Japan’s market and the export similarity between China and Japan in the EU’s market are not too high，but the export competitiveness of certain categories of goods is increasing year by year. On the other hand，the GTAP model is used to analyze the impact of trade tariff reduction between Japan and EU on the economy of China and Japan. The results show that the EU-Japan EPA will make China’s macro economy such as GDP，social welfare and terms of trade suffer negative impacts，while Japan’s macro economy will be improved. The output of Chinese and Japanese agricultural products and agro-processing industries will decline. China’s import and export trade to the world will decline，while Japan’s import and export trade to the world will increase. In bilateral trade，China’s export of agricultural products and agro-processing industries to Japan and China’s industrial imports from Japan will all decline to some extent. The trade diversion effect between Japan and EU will have a significant impact on China.
