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2019年中国金融市场回顾与2020年展望

文章摘要

2020年,全球经济将继续放缓、风险盘踞,地缘政治形势趋于严峻,全球贸易局势仍具有不确定性,主要央行将在2020年延续宽松的货币政策,全球财政政策将维持扩张至中性偏松。中国财政政策积极延续,货币政策仍将保持松紧适度,资本市场改革力度加大,促进资金流入和风险偏好提升。2020年中国股票市场将震荡上行,债券市场机会有限,人民币汇率大概率稳中有升,黄金价格上涨具有配置价值,原油预期向好、涨幅有限。

Abstract

In 2020,the global economy will continue to slow down and risks will be rampant. The geopolitical situation will become severe,and the global trade situation will remain uncertain. Major central banks will continue to loose monetary policy in 2020,and the global fiscal policy will maintain expansion to neutral. China’s fiscal policy will continue actively,and monetary policy will remain moderately tight. The capital market reforms will be intensified to promote capital inflows and risk preference. In 2020,the stock market will fluctuate upward,the bond market will have limited opportunities,the RMB exchange rate will likely rise steadily,the gold price rise has configuration value,and the crude oil is expected to be better and the increase will be limited.

作者简介
高彦如:中级经济师,中国建投投资研究院研究员