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南高加索地区政局新变化及其走向

文章摘要

2019年,南高加索地区政局稳中有变,波澜不惊,基本稳定。阿塞拜疆锐意改革,发展经济,继续成为地区的稳定之锚。亚美尼亚总理帕尼希扬立志改革,实施新政,亚美尼亚局势逐渐从动荡走向稳定。格鲁吉亚朝野矛盾加剧,政坛风波不断。内部问题、地区热点、外部因素是当前南高加索地区政局稳定面临的主要挑战。未来有利于稳定的因素仍大于不稳定因素,南高加索地区政局有望继续维持基本稳定局面。

Abstract

In 2019,the South Caucasus witnessed a year of overall stability and subtle change. As the most stable country in the region,Azerbaijan continued to promote its comprehensive economic transformation,encouraged the development of non-energy sectors and tapped the potential of multi-regional connectivity. The new Armenian government consolidated its ruling position and implemented a series of new economic and foreign policies aiming at exploring new development models and expanding international space. Georgia was embroiled in disputes among ruling party and oppositions over the reform of electoral system,and the domestic political deadlock would be difficult to resolve in the short term. The South Caucasus countries still faced challenges in domestic political and economic development and risks such as regional hotspots and geo-strategic competition among external powers. Nevertheless,factors conducive to regional stability outweigh potential risks,and the region is expected to maintain overall stability.

作者简介
邓浩:邓浩,中国上海合作组织研究中心秘书长,中国国际问题研究院研究员,中国社会科学院中俄战略协作高端合作智库常务理事,主要研究中亚和南高地区形势、上合组织等。
康杰:康杰,中国国际问题研究院欧亚研究所助理研究员,主要研究美国的中亚和南高地区政策、美俄关系等。