资本项目开放与汇率自由化、利率市场化改革是我国目前三大金融自由化改革的核心内容。首先，本文梳理了国内外学术界关于资本项目开放与汇率自由化、利率市场化改革模式选择的理论观点；其次，对国际上典型国家（地区）三项金融自由化改革的模式选择及其在改革过程中遭遇的不同类型、不同程度的危机进行归纳；再次，在此基础上，基于国别数据，运用二值响应面板数据模型实证检验改革的不同完成次序对危机爆发的影响及影响程度；最后，基于实证研究结果，提出中国应采取先利率市场化，再汇率自由化，最后完成资本项目全面开放的渐进推进模式进行金融自由化改革等政策建议。
The reform of capital account liberalization，exchange rate liberalization and interest rate liberalization are three core contents of the China’s de facto major financial liberalization reform. This paper reviewed the domestic and foreign academics，from theoretical perspectives，on the choices of capital account liberalization，exchange rate liberalization，and interest rate liberalization reforms at first. Then，we summarize the model selection of these three financial liberalization reforms in typical countries （regions） around the world and the different types and degrees of crisis encountered in the process of reform. Based on the above analysis，this research uses the binary response panel data model with country-specific data to empirically test the effect and its degree of different reform completion sequences on the crisis outbreak. Policy suggestions are proposed in the last section，such as China should adopt the gradual advancement models according to the order of interest rate liberalization，exchange rate liberalization，and the entirely completion of capital liberalization，to carry out financial liberalization reforms.
| Keywords： | Risk PreventionMode SelectionFinancial Liberalization ReformBinary Response Panel Data Model |
