2017年是朝核问题和半岛局势发生重大变化的一年。朝鲜频频进行核、导试验，并初步对美部分目标构成核威慑能力；美对朝发出明确的动武信号，半岛战争风险上升，大国博弈加剧。就美对朝动武而言，需满足四个条件，即确定明晰的战争“红线”，确定战争目标及可承受的战争代价，做好各种战争准备，进行大国协调。就朝鲜导弹核武器发展水平而言，目前朝鲜还不具备核打击美国大陆本土的实际能力。美朝关系进入一个“死结”，根源在于美朝在朝核问题上都存在政策与目标上的逻辑矛盾。历史和现实证明，要解决朝核问题，关键是美国要放弃冷战思维、转变观念，按照伊核模式以和谈方式解决朝核问题。
The evolution of the DPRK nuclear issue and the situation on the peninsula underwent major changes in 2017. The DPRK conducted more missile tests，including several long-range missile tests and its sixth nuclear test，and it possessed an initial nuclear deterrence against the US. On the other hand，the US sent a very clear signal that it would resolve the DPRK nuclear issue with military force. The risk of war on the peninsula surged and the game among the major powers intensified. Currently，the DPRK is incapable of attacking the US mainland with nuclear weapons. The nuclear issue has reached an impasse，with the US and the DPRK caught up in the policy and logic of the conflict. The history and the reality prove that the key to resolving the DPRK nuclear issue depends on a change in the Cold War mentality in the US and the making of a political decision，just as occurred in the case of resolving the Iranian nuclear issue.
