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2019年国际军控重大问题:形势与发展

文章摘要

2019年是国际军控形势发展波澜再起的一年,主要体现为三个重大问题——中导问题、朝鲜核问题和伊朗核问题形势出现重大变化。美国正式退出《中导条约》毁掉了核裁军基石,引发大国新的对抗,使国际秩序在失序道路上又前进一步。作为防扩散和世界热点的朝鲜核问题在2018年出现转机后,2019年却陷入困顿,在美国2020年大选前半岛无核化问题取得实质性进展的可能性不大。伊朗核问题因美国退出伊核协议和对伊实施极限施压政策出现逆转,美伊欧三方基于各自利益进入混战式博弈阶段。

Abstract

In 2019,a number of changes took place with respect to international arms control,as reflected in three areas:the U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty(INF),the DPRK nuclear issue,and the Iran nuclear issue. The formal withdrawal of the United States from the INF Treaty destroyed the cornerstone of nuclear disarmament,triggering new confrontations among the major powers. As a global hot-spot,in 2019 the DPRK nuclear issue faced a number of difficulties and it is unlikely to achieve substantial progress with respect to denuclearization on the peninsula ahead of the next U.S. presidential election. The Iran nuclear issue was reversed by the withdrawal of the United States from the Iran nuclear agreement,and the United States,Iraq,and the European countries entered a stage of fierce competition based on their respective interests.

作者简介
邹治波:邹治波,研究员,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长,主要研究领域为国际关系、国际战略及国际安全。