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“一带一路”倡议与南太平洋地缘政治

  • 作者:陈德正 于镭 教育部国别和区域研究中心(备案) 山东省首批重点新型智库建设试点单位-聊城大学太平洋岛国研究中心出版日期:2019年11月
  • 报告页数:17 页
  • 报告字数:35042 字所属丛书:
  • 所属图书:太平洋岛国研究(第四辑)
  • 浏览人数:0    下载次数:4

文章摘要

“一带一路”倡议已与南太平洋地区的地缘政治“中国威胁”论调联系在一起。作为南太平洋地区的主要参与者,中国和澳大利亚是出于地缘政治的需要而进行权力竞争,还是它们不同的地缘政治需求提供了互利合作的机会,并管理了该地区的风险?本文分析了所谓的中国“威胁”以及对中国的风险,包括对瓦努阿图军事基地的担忧、中国在汤加的债务资助项目,以及与巴布亚新几内亚更紧密的经济合作。一项地缘政治分析得出的结论是,如果澳大利亚能够保持其在地区安全方面的领导地位,那么它满足其地缘政治需求是可行的。一项对中国在南太平洋地区的地缘政治分析得出的结论是,如果中国能够确保贸易路线和市场的准入,它就不太可能寻求地区安全领导地位。如果澳大利亚可以超越地缘政治言论,应该有可能对澳大利亚与中国合作来支持可持续发展,降低风险,确保南太平洋地区的整体稳定。

Abstract

The Belt and Road Initiative has become associated with a geopolitical“China threat”discourse in the South Pacific.Are China and Australia,the dominant regional player in the South Pacific,driven by geopolitical imperatives to compete for power or do their different geopolitical needs provide opportunity for cooperation that is mutually beneficial and manages risks in the region? Supposed Chinese“threats”as well as risks to China are examined,including fears of a military base in Vanuatu,Chinese debt-funded projects in Tonga and closer economic cooperation with Papua New Guinea.A geopolitical analysis concludes that it is feasible for Australia to meet its geopolitical imperatives if its regional security leadership can be maintained.A geopolitical analysis of China in the South Pacific concludes that China is unlikely to seek regional security leadership if it can ensure access to trade routes and markets.If Australia could move beyond geopolitical rhetoric,it should therefore be possible for Australia to partner with China to support sustainable development,mitigate risks and ensure broader stability of the South Pacific region.

作者简介
David Morris:David Morris is Vice President of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific Sustainable Business Network and Academic Adviser,Research Center for Pacific Island Countries,Liaocheng University.