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全球债务可持续性分析(2018~2020)

文章摘要

全球债务存量在2018年达到新峰值。本文通过对国家债务构成在内外、公私、偿付成本三个维度上的分析,指出私人债务(非金融企业借贷)比重迅速上升是全球债务发展的新特点。对于发展中国家而言,私人债务占比提高,债权结构非官方、非银行系统化,债务非生产性投资化,以及由上述新变化带来的新情况——债务指标与发达经济体相比虽然相对较低,但债务危机风险迅速上升——成为其重要特征。发展中国家目前的债务发展趋势不利于联合国2030年可持续发展目标的实现。中国在“一带一路”倡议下向发展中国家提供的生产性投资,可以通过推动当地经济发展进而缓解发展进而中国家的长期债务压力。

Abstract

The global debt outstanding reached a new peak in 2018. By analyzing the composition of debt in three dimensions:internal and external,public and private,and servicing cost,this paper points out that the rapid increase of private debt (non-financial enterprise loan) is an important new feature of global debt development. For developing countries,the increasing share of short-term debt,non-government/bank debt ownership,debt investment in unproductive areas,and the new situation brought about by the above-mentioned new changes-although debt indicators are relatively low compared with developed economies,the risk of debt crisis is rising rapidly-have become important features. The current debt situation in developing countries is not supportive to the realization of the UN 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. China’s productive investment in developing countries under the “Belt and Road Initiative” will alleviate the long-term debt pressure of developing countries by promoting local economic development.

作者简介
孙靓莹:孙靓莹,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为国际发展、联合国可持续发展议程和债务可持续性。