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国际大宗商品市场形势回顾与展望:波动下行(2018~2020)

文章摘要

2018年7月至2019年8月,国际大宗商品价格大幅波动,先走出一波“V”形剧烈震荡行情,后波动下行,整体下跌了13.6%。受地缘政治事件、中美经贸摩擦和全球经济不确定风险上升等因素的影响,国际原油价格深幅震荡,其间出现了37%的跌幅和14%的单日涨幅。国际大宗商品价格指数先由2018年10月的133.7大幅降至12月的116.2,随即在2019年1月迅速反弹至129.8,而后绵延下跌至8月的112.8。不同类型大宗商品的价格走势出现明显分化,能源商品价格波动幅度最大,呈震荡下行态势,其中天然气和煤炭价格稳定下行;贵金属商品价格强劲上涨,创2014年以来的历史新高;农产品和工业金属的价格走势基本趋同,呈缓慢但稳定的下跌态势。经贸摩擦导致全球经济不确定性风险显著上升,预计2020年大宗商品价格指数会继续小幅下调,原油均价可能会处于60美元/桶左右的水平。

Abstract

During July 2018 and August 2019,the international commodity prices fluctuated sharply,following a “v-shaped” trend before falling down,with an overall decline of 13.6%.Due to geopolitical events,trade frictions and rising risks of global economy,crude oil prices fluctuated significantly,as shown by a decline of 37 percent and a one-day increase of 14 percent. Influenced by the crude oil price,the international commodity price index dropped from 133.7 in October 2018 to 116.2 in December 2018,then rebounded rapidly to 129.8 in January 2019,and then fell continuously to 112.8 in August. Different types of commodities diverged significantly in price trends. The prices of energy commodities showed a trend of downward accompanied by sharp fluctuations. Prices of Precious metals rose strongly,reaching a record high since 2014. Prices of agricultural products and industrial metals basically converged,showing slow but steady trends of decline. Due to the increased uncertainty about global economic caused by trade disputes,it is expected that the commodity price index will decline slightly,and the average price of crude oil may be around $60 per barrelin 2020.

作者简介
王永中:王永中,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,世界能源室主任,主要研究领域为国际投资、能源经济。
周伊敏:周伊敏,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为能源经济。