During July 2018 and August 2019,the international commodity prices fluctuated sharply,following a “v-shaped” trend before falling down,with an overall decline of 13.6%.Due to geopolitical events,trade frictions and rising risks of global economy,crude oil prices fluctuated significantly,as shown by a decline of 37 percent and a one-day increase of 14 percent. Influenced by the crude oil price,the international commodity price index dropped from 133.7 in October 2018 to 116.2 in December 2018,then rebounded rapidly to 129.8 in January 2019,and then fell continuously to 112.8 in August. Different types of commodities diverged significantly in price trends. The prices of energy commodities showed a trend of downward accompanied by sharp fluctuations. Prices of Precious metals rose strongly,reaching a record high since 2014. Prices of agricultural products and industrial metals basically converged,showing slow but steady trends of decline. Due to the increased uncertainty about global economic caused by trade disputes,it is expected that the commodity price index will decline slightly,and the average price of crude oil may be around $60 per barrelin 2020.
Keywords: | Commodity MarketDemandSupplyPrices |