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2019年国际金融形势回顾与展望

文章摘要

2018~2019年全球经济增长动能减弱。持续发酵的贸易摩擦具有高度不确定性,英国脱欧进程充满变数,世界经济下行风险不断集聚。在这样的背景下,美联储货币政策转向,引领全球新一轮降息风潮。主要发达经济体长期国债收益率同步下行,一些国家国债收益步入超低值甚至负值区域;全球避险情绪高涨,美元资产再度成为避险资本的天堂,在美元指数高位震荡的同时更多国家货币纷纷贬值。新兴经济体资本流动风险上升,宏观政策框架面临调整。展望未来,全球货币政策将继续面临宽松压力,贸易摩擦演化和一些国家政治变数将影响金融市场并对全球金融稳定性造成冲击。

Abstract

Global economic growth lost its momentum in 2018-2019. The escalation of trade disputes,uncertain outcome of Brexit,and increasing geopolitical conflicts brought uncertainty and weighted on the world economy. The US Fed shifted its monetary policy and led to a new round of monetary easing worldwide. The long-term government bond yields in major developed economies fell into ultra-low and even negative areas. The rise of risk-aversion increased activities of search for safety and reinforced the US dollar to perform as a safe haven. The US dollar index fluctuated at high level,while many other currencies depreciated,showing signs of competitive depreciation. The risk of capital flow in emerging economies increased and most of them face adjustment of macro-economic policy framework. Going forward,easing monetary policy,continuous trade disputes and domestic political dynamic in some economies will affect international market and challenge global financial stability.

作者简介
高海红:高海红,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,主要研究领域为国际金融。
杨子荣:杨子荣,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为国际金融。