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日本经济:战后最长扩张周期如履薄冰(2018~2020)

文章摘要

2018年至2019年上半年,日本经济缓慢增长。截至2019年1月,日本经济扩张周期已经持续了74个月,刷新了战后最长时间纪录。但同时日本经济增长也显现疲态。2018年下半年和2019年上半年日本经济同比实际增速均出现明显下滑。消费疲软、投资增长动力不足以及外部经济形势恶化都是导致日本经济增速下滑的原因。2019年和2020年,日本经济将主要面临消费税提升和外部经济风险两大短期不利因素。长期不利因素诸如人口老龄化和政府债务问题等也很难得到根本改变。2020年7月开幕的东京奥运会则会对日本经济产生短期正面影响。预计日本经济仍将在2019~2020年保持缓慢增长,实际GDP增速将维持在0.7%左右,但很难回到2017年的状态,扩张周期可能会最终确认结束。

Abstract

From 2018 to the first half of 2019,Japanese economy continues growing slowly. By the end of January 2019,the resuscitation cycle had continued 74 months,which is the longest resuscitation cycle after the World War II. At the same time,Japanese economic growth also showed signs of fatigue. The real economic growth in the second half of 2018 and the first half of 2019 showed significant decline. For example,weak consumption and investment,the risks of world economy are the factors for this weak growth. In 2019 and 2020,the Japanese economy will face to some negative factors such as consumption tax increase and the world economic and political risks. The long-run risks,such as aging of population and government debt will still exist. Tokyo Olympic Games will be a positive factor. We consider that Japanese economy will still growth slowly in 2019 and 2020,but it is difficult to return to the good condition like in 2017.

作者简介
周学智:周学智,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为国际投资、国际资本流动。