2023年,全球地缘政治仍处于动荡与变动之中。亚太地区,中美两国恢复高层沟通,双边关系跌势现缓,局部出现缓和,但核心问题并未解决;美国继续在台海地区试探我国红线,联合日本、韩国、印度、菲律宾,提升与越南关系,在全面编织遏华包围圈上动作频繁。欧洲方面,俄乌冲突持续,俄罗斯与西方的地缘对抗被西方官方文件确认;俄欧实力均有下降,欧洲更依赖美国;俄乌冲突外溢效应明显;“全球南方”国家在俄乌冲突中保持中立,积极斡旋。中东地区,随着沙特、伊朗关系进一步解冻,伊斯兰国家出现新“和解潮”;在大国博弈背景下,中东国家追求独立对外政策;巴以冲突加剧,或对中东和平产生巨大冲击。受俄乌冲突影响,全球能源价格、局部地区粮食价格飙升,非洲国家治理脆弱性凸显,多国政局动荡,但非洲整体政治影响力上升。
In 2023,global geopolitics is still characterized by turmoil and change. In the Asia-Pacific region,China and the United States have resumed high-level communication. The decline in bilateral relations has slowed down and has eased in some areas,but the core issues have not been resolved. By testing our red lines in the Taiwan Strait,joining forces with Japan,South Korea,India,and the Philippines,the United States accelerates the speed of weaving the network of encirclement to contain China. In Europe,the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues,and the geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West is confirmed by Western official documents. In general,the strength of Russia and Europe has both declined,rendering the latter more dependent on the United States. The spillover effect of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is felt by the international society,and the “Global South” have maintained neutrality and made efforts to mediate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the Middle East,as relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran further thaw,a new “reconciliation wave” has emerged in Islamic countries;in the context of great power competition,Middle Eastern countries are pursuing independent foreign policies;the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has intensified,which may have a huge negative impact on Middle East reconciliation. Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,global energy prices and local food prices soared,driving up level of fragility of African countries. Many African countries have seen rampant turbulence. However,Africa’s overall political influence has increased.