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斯里兰卡经济危机的现状、原因与影响

文章摘要

20世纪50年代到70年代,斯里兰卡曾是全球第三世界国家中的发展典范。该国通过积极参与“不结盟运动”提升了自己在全球政治舞台上的话语权,并依靠继承“殖民遗产”在基础设施、经济基础、社会福利等方面领先于大多数发展中国家。在经历多年内战后,斯里兰卡也曾浴火重生迸发出极大的发展潜力,但2021年却陷入独立以来最为严重的经济危机。从经济逻辑分析,长期双赤字和高度依赖外债维系平衡的发展模式是造成斯里兰卡经济发展脆弱性和债务累积性风险的根本原因,而新冠肺炎疫情蔓延、乌克兰危机爆发以及全球供应链破裂等外部冲击则是打断该国脆弱的经济发展进程与打破外债可持续平衡的现实缘由。经济逻辑背后呈现的是制度、历史、社会与外部环境对斯里兰卡经济发展模式、发展路径的深刻影响。当前来看,日益严重的综合性经济危机不仅对斯里兰卡经济发展、社会福利以及国家形象造成了负面影响,还破坏了该国的社会、政治稳定性,甚至可能导致民粹主义抬头以及引发更大的地缘竞争风险。

Abstract

From the 1950s to the 1970s,Sri Lanka was a global model of development among third world countries. Through its active participation in the Non-Aligned Movement,the country raised its voice in the global political arena and,by inheriting its ‘colonial legacy’,was ahead of most developing countries in terms of infrastructure,economic base and social welfare. After years of civil war,Sri Lanka was also reborn with great potential for development,but in 2021 it fell into the most severe economic crisis since independence. In terms of economic logic,the chronic twin deficits and high reliance on external debt to maintain a balanced development model are the root causes of Sri Lanka’s economic development vulnerability and cumulative debt risk,while external shocks such as the spread of the new crown epidemic,the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis and the breakdown of global supply chains are the real causes of interrupting the country’s fragile economic development and external debt sustainability balance;behind the economic logic,there are institutional,historical,social and external factors that affect Sri Lanka’s economic development. Behind the economic logic lies the profound impact of the institutional,historical,social and external environment on Sri Lanka’s economic development model and development path dependence. At present,the growing comprehensive economic crisis is not only negatively affecting Sri Lanka’s economic development,social welfare and national image,but also undermining the country’s social and political stability,and may even lead to the rise of populism and greater geopolitical competition risks.

作者简介
李艳芳:李艳芳,云南财经大学印度洋地区研究中心副教授。