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印度退出RCEP谈判的原因与影响因素

文章摘要

印度一直是《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)谈判过程中三心二意的谈判方,心态和动机非常复杂。一方面,印度担心一个没有印度的(RCEP)会使印度孤立于亚太经济一体化进程以外,从而失去一些经济发展的机会;另一方面,印度又担心加入RCEP后会损害自己的制造业计划与制造业发展,会扩大贸易赤字。因此,印度在RCEP谈判过程中一直是参与、塑造和拖延三大目标并重。但是最终,RCEP谈判的其他谈判方不再能忍受印度的拖延战略,决心通过这一谈了8年多的自由贸易协议。印度退出RCEP谈判进程,主要是以下因素造成的。国际因素是,在全球化面临严重障碍和印度制造业难以振兴的前景之下,印度认为可以从RCEP中获得的远期潜在收益不确定,但近期潜在成本却很高。国内因素主要是,受选票政治的影响以及印度教民族主义视角下印度对印度制造和经济独立的追求,印度产生了贸易保护主义情绪。

Abstract

India has always been a half-hearted negotiator in the process of RCEP negotiation,with a very complex mentality and motivation. On the one hand,India is worried that RCEP without India will further isolate India from the process of Asia-Pacific economic integration,and it will thereby reduce some opportunities of economic development of India;on the other hand,India is worried that after joining RCEP,the plan and development of its own manufacturing industry will be damaged,and the trade deficit will continue to wide. Therefore,in the RCEP negotiation process,India has always paid equal attention to these three goals:participation,shaping and procrastination. But in the end,other negotiators of RCEP could no longer bear India’s procrastination strategy and were determined to pass the free trade agreement that has been negotiated for more than eight years. India’s withdrawal from the process of RCEP negotiation is mainly due to the following reasons. from the international perspective,considering the serious obstacles of globalization and the difficulty of revitalization of Indian manufacturing industry,India believes that the long-term potential benefits that can be obtained from RCEP are uncertain,and the potential cost is very high in the short term. from the Domestic perspective,India has trade protectionist sentiment due to the influence of vote politics and India’s pursuit of Indian manufacturing and economic independence from the perspective of Hindu nationalism.

作者简介
张家栋:张家栋,复旦大学美国研究中心教授、南亚研究中心主任。
何雪倩:何雪倩,复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院国际关系专业2020级博士生。